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Free list · 15 calls · as of Nov 11, 2026

Every analyst call on $NVDA before earnings (15)

The recorded stance, the sharpest number or claim, the main risk, and the original source. Most useful first, in plain English.

NVIDIA reports fiscal Q3 2027 on Tue Nov 17. Call at 5pm ET. ↗
4 bull · 4 bear2 mixed · 5 unclear
$320–$400 · $310 · $280price targets in our research
$108.0BNVIDIA's own Q3 guide
Price targets in our research: Davis Wilson $320–$400; Morningstar $310; Nicholas Mugalli $280. These 15 rows are every released NVDA research record in BeliefState as of Nov 11, from 10 investors. Stances are as recorded. Five notes have no investment action in our record. Two priced targets in the summary (Davis Wilson, Morningstar) come from our public NVDA write-up and link to the authors' own notes; they are not separate rows here because they are not in that 15-record set.
  1. 1
    structural price targetBull

    Nicholas Mugalli

    $280structural target, no deadline
    Aug 26, 2026

    The call: Keeps a $280 structural target with no stated deadline, and calls the stock historically cheap at about 17 times calendar 2027 and 13 times calendar 2028 earnings. He also forecast Q3 revenue guidance of $107B to $108B, above a $104.5B expectation.

    Risk: A revenue beat by itself may no longer lift the stock. Global HBM supply constraints require reduced memory allocations to fulfill compute-volume commitments.

    Source: Nicholas Mugalli, Aug 26 earnings preview ↗
  2. 2
    published viewMixed

    Invest with MEH

    ~8.9%below SMH parity, not a target
    Nov 9, 2026

    The call: Judges Nvidia's political-risk discount as roughly fair — about 8.9% below a hypothetical $196.07 SMH-parity price he calculated from a prior close near $186.64, versus $178.67 actually quoted. He says these are his calculations rather than a price target, rejects both a free-dip buy and a headline-driven short, and would hypothetically prefer Nvidia to AMD under tougher Washington policy.

    Risk: New export rules, license delays or revocations, and Huang's personal legal exposure could make the current discount inadequate. The author notes the underlying allegations are unconfirmed, and that fading coverage, no formal action, and unchanged guidance could reverse the bearish reading.

    Source: Invest with MEH, Nov 9 ↗
  3. 3
    options noteBull

    OppCost

    ~18%March spread, to break even
    Nov 5, 2026

    The call: Prefers the June $210/$230 call spread over the highlighted March trade while waiting for the selloff to settle. The March spread's quoted break-even was about 18% above $182.75. An optional short March $150 put is only if you are willing to own Nvidia at $150. A reported $19M March $210/$230 ticket was other traders, not a disclosed author fill.

    Risk: The March spread needs roughly 18% upside to break even, and the stock had broken below its 40-week line; the author advises patience.

    Source: OppCost, Nov 5 midday ↗
  4. 4
    options noteBull

    OppCost

    $180optional own-at, if comfortable
    Nov 4, 2026

    The call: Prefers the June $230/$250 call spread at about $5.75 for three extra months. Optional financing by selling March $180 puts is only if you are comfortable owning Nvidia at $180. The March spread needed about a 15% rise to a $234.90 break-even. A reported $16.9M March $230/$250 ticket was outside flow, not an author holding.

    Risk: Data-center concerns accompany chip weakness. The short-put leg adds downside exposure beyond the call spread alone.

    Source: OppCost, Nov 4 midday ↗
  5. 5
    reported pricingUnclear

    Mon

    >15%server prices, early-2027 shipments
    Aug 23, 2026

    The call: Reports that Nvidia has told major customers prices for Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin servers shipping in early 2027 will rise by more than 15%. This is the article's report of a future pricing change, not independently verified guidance or a stock recommendation.

    Risk: No risk statement was recorded in our record.

    Source: Mon, Aug 23 ↗
  6. 6
    published viewMixed

    Sergey

    20.5xforward earnings, article's stated multiple
    Aug 27, 2026

    The call: Sees strong AI-driven growth and a modest forward multiple — the article's stated valuation was 17.3 times EV/Sales and 20.5 times forward earnings — but stops short of calling the stock unequivocally cheap. Expects Vera Rubin to account for roughly 20% of Q3 Data Center revenue, and cites management's view that CPU revenue could double in FY28.

    Risk: Expects growth to decelerate from the next quarter. Rising memory costs threaten gross margins (Q3 guide 74% ±50 basis points, with a possible Q4 trough around 71%–72%). Cash conversion has weakened alongside AI-lab investments, inventory accumulation, and extended customer payment terms.

    Source: Sergey, Aug 27 ↗
  7. 7
    published viewBear

    Invest with MEH

    4.57%session decline, to $217.55
    Aug 28, 2026

    The call: Bearish on Nvidia relative to AI-compute buyers such as Amazon and Alphabet, citing uncertain customer visibility and a possible peak in hyperscaler spending. The author held no position. The article reported Nvidia falling 4.57% to $217.55 in the Aug 28 session.

    Risk: The observed divergence may be a short-lived positioning move, not evidence of a fundamental change. Stronger hyperscaler capex guidance or a signed, disclosed customer contract could invalidate the interpretation.

    Source: Invest with MEH, Aug 28 ↗
  8. 8
    published viewBear

    Jasper Gould

    9.2%reported share-price decline
    Nov 6, 2026

    The call: Sees a serious but uncertain threat to NVIDIA sales if weaker hyperscaler investment returns, and potentially unexpected AI regulation, cut spending. The article also reported a 9.2% share-price decline.

    Risk: Unexpected direct AI regulation is an additional wildcard, and the author explicitly considers the NVIDIA causal case less clear.

    Source: Jasper Gould, Nov 6 ↗
  9. 9
    published viewBear

    Red Eye Returns

    $3BNvidia participation in Meta's sale
    Oct 27, 2026

    The call: Nvidia said it will buy $3 billion of the stock Meta is selling for its AI buildout. The author does not read that check as a vote of confidence, but as evidence that even a highly profitable buyer needed supplier participation, extending financing support — and risk — onto Nvidia's balance sheet.

    Risk: The expanded support network for AI demand places risk on Nvidia's balance sheet as well as Meta's.

    Source: Red Eye Returns, Oct 27 ↗
  10. 10
    reported options flowBear

    OppCost

    ~$166put expiry break-even, other traders
    Oct 30, 2026

    The call: Reports about 21,700 NVDA Jan 15 2027 $170 puts bought to open, about $8.66 million, with a roughly $166 expiry break-even. These are another trader's reported purchases, not disclosed OppCost holdings. No separate company thesis or author recommendation was supplied.

    Risk: No risk statement was recorded in our record.

    Source: OppCost, Oct 30 midday ↗
  11. 11
    reported options flowBull

    OppCost

    $268.10call expiry break-even, no author position
    Oct 28, 2026

    The call: Reports opening purchases of about 4,858 NVDA Mar 19 2027 $260 calls for about $3.9 million, with a stated expiry break-even of $268.10. No author position, company thesis, or exit rule was supplied.

    Risk: No risk statement was recorded in our record.

    Source: OppCost, Oct 28 midday ↗
  12. 12
    reported noteUnclear

    Jimmy狐狸

    $109.0Barticle-reported Q3 revenue expectation
    Nov 9, 2026

    The call: Reports fiscal Q3 2027 earnings on November 17 after the close, with article-reported expectations of $2.47 EPS and $109.0B revenue, and describes a session in which NVDA lagged the SOX by 11.12 percentage points. The article does not express an investment action.

    Risk: The article reports an independent board investigation into espionage allegations involving the CEO's relationship, while the company says his role and work continue unchanged. This is a report of an allegation and a company statement, not a finding.

    Source: Jimmy狐狸, Nov 9 ↗
  13. 13
    reported noteUnclear

    The Wall Street Republic

    9.26%reported fall, to $181.60
    Nov 6, 2026

    The call: Reports Nvidia fell 9.26% to $181.60, its worst day since the DeepSeek selloff in January 2025, and links that to investor caution about the pace of AI infrastructure spending after the Democratic sweep of Congress. It does not report that spending had actually fallen, and it expresses no investment action.

    Risk: Investors were reportedly more cautious about the pace of AI infrastructure spending.

    Source: The Wall Street Republic, Nov 6 ↗
  14. 14
    reported noteUnclear

    OppCost

    $3BNvidia in Meta's stock sale, no author stance
    Oct 27, 2026

    The call: Reports Nvidia putting $3 billion into Meta's stock sale and cites a Nvidia release saying Meta will add more Vera Rubin systems and Vera CPUs. No Nvidia share recommendation or author holding is disclosed.

    Risk: No risk statement was recorded in our record.

    Source: OppCost, Oct 27 ↗
  15. 15
    field notesUnclear

    Software Synthesis

    90.6%CPU share of agent latency, not a forecast
    Oct 26, 2026

    The call: Field notes from GTC Berlin: the source reports that CPUs can account for up to 90.6% of an agent's total latency, and that Nvidia's Vera strategy focuses on per-core performance under load. It also reports Nvidia contributed to the initial capital of Brookfield's AI fund, which targets $10B of equity and up to $100B including co-investment — those figures describe the fund's ambitions, not Nvidia's individual check.

    Risk: No risk statement was recorded in our record.

    Source: Software Synthesis, Oct 26 ↗
  16. ★
    primary source

    What NVIDIA itself guided for this quarter

    Revenue of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin of 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points. No data center compute revenue from China assumed.

    Source: NVIDIA Q2 FY27 release, Aug 26 ↗

Bull vs bear, in one look

Bull case
  • A $280 structural target, with the stock described as historically cheap at about 17 times calendar 2027 and 13 times calendar 2028 earnings (Nicholas Mugalli).
  • June call spreads preferred over nearer March trades, with optional short puts only if you are willing to own the stock at $150 or $180 (OppCost, Nov 4–5).
  • Morningstar's $310 fair value and Davis Wilson's $320–$400 range, from our public write-up of their own notes.
Bear case
  • Weaker hyperscaler returns and unexpected AI regulation could cut NVIDIA sales (Jasper Gould, Nov 6).
  • Nvidia's $3B participation in Meta's sale is read as putting risk on Nvidia's balance sheet, not as a confidence signal (Red Eye Returns, Oct 27).
  • A possible peak in hyperscaler spending, with a preference for compute buyers instead (Invest with MEH, Aug 28).
  • Growth may decelerate, rising memory costs could pressure margins, and cash conversion has weakened (Sergey, Aug 27).
  • A revenue beat by itself may no longer lift the stock (Nicholas Mugalli).

What to check on earnings day

Pick one driver, like data center revenue or gross margin, and check it against NVIDIA's $108.0B and 74.0% guide on Nov 17. Then look for each author's dated revision. Mugalli also said a revenue beat alone may no longer move the stock, so watch China and export commentary on the call.

Source data: BeliefState released NVDA research records, reviewed 2026-11-11. Each row is a released BeliefState research record, linked to the author's original page. Stances are as recorded. Not every note includes a price target or an investment recommendation. BeliefState is a research and recordkeeping tool, not personalized investment advice. Verify material facts against original sources.